Palay output estimated to have fallen 11% in Q3

By Adrian H. Halili, Reporter

OUTPUT of palay, or unmilled rice, is estimated to have declined 11.4% during the third quarter, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said.

In a report, the PSA said that the palay harvest could come in at 3.36 million metric tons (MMT) during the three months to September. If the estimate is confirmed, it would fall far short of the 3.8 MMT in actual output reported a year earlier.

The PSA’s third-quarter outlook is based on the standing rice crop as of Aug. 1.

The Department of Agriculture (DA) earlier downgraded its palay production estimate to 20.1 MMT for 2024, from the 20.44 MMT forecast issued earlier.

The PSA said that the total harvest area likely decreased 14.1% year on year to 796,470 hectares.

“The yield per hectare of palay may increase to 4.22 MT or by 2.9% from (the year-earlier) yield of 4.10 MT,” the PSA said.

It added that 14.6% or 116,410 hectares of the crop was harvested as of Aug 1. It is about 469,400 MT.

“Of the total area of standing palay yet to be harvested, 14.9% were at the vegetative stage, 58.7% at the reproductive stage, and 26.4% at the maturing stage,” the PSA said.

On the other hand, corn production is estimated to have risen 2.4% to 2.52 MMT during the period, compared to the actual output of 2.47 MMT a year ago.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. has said that agricultural production could improve in the second half if no major typhoons damage the standing crop.

“The third and fourth quarter output should be good because we have water, but the only problem is if we get hit by storms or heavy rains,” Mr. Laurel said.

The DA has an output growth target of between 1% to 2% for 2024, an estimate which incorporates the impact of the El Niño and La Niña weather events.

“But I’m still optimistic that it will be much better than the first half of this year,” Mr. Laurel added.

Agricultural production declined 3.3% during the second quarter, worsening from the 1.2% drop a year prior, the PSA said.

“For the forecast for this year we need to know the adjusted forecast by the end of this month,” Mr. Laurel said.