Climate change could cut PHL’s GDP by 18% by 2070

THE PHILIPPINES could potentially lose 18.1% of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2070 due to climate change under a high emissions scenario, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said.

“In the Philippines, about half of losses come from sea level rise. And then, a larger share than at the regional average would come from natural resource-based sectors, so agriculture, fisheries, forestry,” David A. Raitzer, senior economist at the ADB’s Economic Research and Development Impact Department, said in a virtual briefing on Thursday.

In particular, the Philippines’ agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors could suffer a combined 4.7% output loss by 2070 due to the impact of climate change, according to the ADB’s inaugural Asia-Pacific Climate Report.

The estimated loss in the Philippines’ natural resource-based sectors is higher than the 2.1% average loss across the Asia-Pacific, the ADB said.

The developing Asia-Pacific region could potentially suffer a 17% loss in its collective GDP by 2070 if high emissions continue. The losses could climb to as much as 41% of the region’s GDP by 2100.

Among Southeast Asian economies, Vietnam will experience the highest overall GDP loss due to climate change at 30.2% by 2070, followed by Indonesia (26.8%).

“These losses are far above prior model-based losses and are consistent with the upper bound of econometric estimates,” the ADB said in the report. “They also confirm that climate policy responses, including adaptation and mitigation, will be essential to the future welfare of the Asia and Pacific region.”

If climate change continues to worsen, the rising sea levels and storm surges will likely cause trillions of dollars’ worth of annual damage in the Asia-Pacific by 2070, ADB Principal Economist Yi Jiang said at a briefing.

Toru Kubo, senior director at the ADB’s Climate Change and Sustainable Development Department, said inhabited parts of the Asia-Pacific will be 4 to 8 degrees Celsius (°C) warmer within the century.

“Given that warmer air of 1°C can hold roughly 7% more water, that is approximately 30-50% more moisture in the atmosphere that comes crashing down when it hits cold air masses,” Mr. Kubo told the briefing.

“Our cities, the rivers, the drainage systems, the critical infrastructure for power, transport, water, food production systems, buildings and homes are not designed to cope with such extreme heat and sudden volumes of water.”

The Asia-Pacific region generates about half of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Many of its countries are signatories to the Paris Agreement, which seeks to limit the average global temperature to within 1.5°C.

“Climate change has supercharged the devastation from tropical storms, heat waves, and floods in the region, contributing to unprecedented economic challenges and human suffering,” ADB President Masatsugu Asakawa said in a statement.

“Urgent, well-coordinated climate action that addresses these impacts is needed before it is too late.”

Despite significant strides in reducing emissions intensity, and a 50% decrease across developing Asia since 2000, the region still produces nearly half of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Rapid production, rising energy demand and increased domestic consumption fueled the emissions rise over the past two decades, the ADB said, with China accounting for two-thirds of the increase. South Asia and Southeast Asia contributed 19.3% and 15.4%, respectively.

The energy sector is the region’s largest emitter, responsible for 77.6% of total emissions, driven by a heavy reliance on fossil fuels.

Left unchecked, these trends place developing Asia at the center of the climate crisis, both in terms of impacts from global warming and solutions, the ADB said.

“The window to stay within the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement is rapidly closing,” ADB said.

It urged countries to come up with more ambitious and large-scale mitigation action plans, accelerate the transition to net-zero emissions and scale up investments in advanced climate technologies and nature-based solutions.

Meanwhile, a majority of Filipinos identify climate change as a serious problem, according the ADB’s Climate Change Perception Survey mentioned in the report.

In a survey of 1,000 Filipino respondents, 90% believe climate change affects people now and in the next 10 years, while 86% of respondents said it affects their family now or within the next 10 years.

According to the survey, most Filipinos (71%) said they were most concerned about the impact of flooding, followed by heat waves (54%), unpredictable weather (46%), less productive agriculture/higher food prices/reduced food security (34%), and drought (21%).

More than half (59%) of Filipinos surveyed supported investments in low-emissions and resilient infrastructure, while 45% backed a carbon tax.

The survey was conducted online from July 8 to 31,. It surveyed 13,500 respondents across 14 Asian economies. — B.M.D.Cruz with Reuters